 1(E
| T1 = t) |
= | 1(T1 = t | E)
1(E)
1(T1 =
t | E)
1(E)
+
1(T1 =
t | F)
1(F) |
| = | 1(E) ----------- 1(E)
+
1(F) |
|
| = |  ------- +
(1 ) |
| This is a file in the archives of the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. |
1. If this does not look immediately obvious, consider that either
E = [T2 = t] = my (Lizzi's) tth confirmation was lost,or
<em>F = [T2 = t] = my tth confirmation was received and Joanna's tth confirmation was lostmust occur, and that
1(T1 = t
| E) =
1(T1 = t
| F) = 1
because Lizzi can see her own computer screen, so we can apply Bayes'
Theorem as follows:
=
=
-----------
=
-------
| Peter Vanderschraaf peterv@cyrus.andrew.cmu.edu |