## Long descriptions for figures in Bounded Rationality

### Figure 1 description

Two graphs labeled (a) and (b):

• Graph (a) is a four quadrant graph with an origin at (0,0). The x-axis is labeled $$v(x)$$ and goes from −100 to 100; the left side is labeled ‘losses’ and the right side ‘gains’. The y-axis is labeled x and goes from −30 to 30. A single curved line starts at the lower left (approx. (−100,−24)) at about a 30 degree angle, goes through the origin at almost a 90 degree angle then goes back to a 30 degree angle by the end (approx. (100,10)).
• Graph (b) is a 10 by 10 layout with x and y both going from 0 to 1. The y-axis is labeled $$w(p)$$ and the x-x-axis p. A straight dashed line goes from (0,0) to (1,1). A solid curved line also goes between the same points. It is above the dashed line from (0,0) to about (.35,.35) and below the dashed line after that point.

### Figure 2 description

The center of the mostly symetrical diagram consists of four vertical boxes, the whole labeled above as ‘cues’ and individually inside from top to bottom as $$X_1$$, $$X_i$$, $$X_j$$, $$X_n$$. Cue $$X_i$$ and $$X_j$$ are connected by a line labeled $$\rho_{X_i, X_j}$$.

To the left of the cues is a box labeled above in green as ‘criterion value’ and inside as $$Y_e$$. Each of the four cues is connected to it with a line and each line labeled $$\rho_{Y_e, X_1}$$ (with $$X_1$$ replaced appropriately).

To the right of the cues is a box labeled above in blue as ‘subject response’ and inside as $$Y_s$$. Each of the four cues is connected to it with a line and each line labeled $$\rho_{Y_s, X_1}$$ (with $$X_1$$ replaced appropriately).

Below the cues is an equation $$r_a = \rho_{Y_e,Y_s}$$ and below that in red the label ‘achievement index’. Lines connect the equation to both $$Y_e$$ and $$Y_s$$.

Below this equation and label is another $$G= \rho_{\hat{Y}_e, \hat{Y}_s}$$ and below that a label in red ‘matching index’. To the left a line goes to a box containing $$\hat{Y}_e$$ and labeled in green ‘predicted criterion value’. A line from this box in turn goes to an equation $$R_e = \rho_{Y_e,\hat{Y}_e}$$ which is labeled in green ‘environmental predictability’. A final line goes from this equation back to the original green box that was labeled ‘criterion value’

To the right of ‘matching index’ goes a line to a box containing $$\hat{Y}_{s}$$ and labeled in blue ‘predicted subject responses’. A line from this box in turn goes to an equation $$R_s = \rho_{Y_s,\hat{Y}_s}$$ which is labeled in blue ‘response linearity’. A final line goes from this equation back to the original blue box that was labeled ‘subject response’.

In the lower left is the equation

$Y_e = \sum^{n}_{i=1} \beta_{e,j}X_j + \epsilon_e$

Under the right hand part of the equation but not including $${}+\epsilon_e$$ is a horizontal brace labeled $$\hat{Y}_e$$

In the lower right is the equation

$Y_s = \sum^{n}_{i=1} \beta_{s,j}X_j + \epsilon_s$

Under the right hand part of the equation but not including $${}+\epsilon_e$$ is a horizontal brace labeled $$\hat{Y}_s$$

### Figure 3 description

A diagram of four targets in a two by two layout. Each of the four targets consists of five concentric rings with the innermost ring colored gray. From innermost to outermost the rings are numbered 0 through 4.

The top left target is labeled ‘(low bias & low variance)’. A cluster of black dots is in ring 0.

The top right target is labeled ‘(low bias & high variance)’. Black dots are scattered at all angles in rings 0 through 2.

The bottom left target is labeled ‘(high bias & low variance)’. Black dots are clustered in the upper right quadrant in rings 2 and 3.

The bottom right target is labeled ‘(high bias & high variance)’. Black dots are mostly in the bottom right quadrant though some in the top right quadrant in all rings.